Paper Reading Notes


Update on November 29, 2020

1. Hoffman, Saul D., and Greg J. Duncan. “Multinomial and conditional logit discrete-choice models in demography.” Demography 25, no. 3 (1988): 415-427.

Although discrete-choice statistical techniques have been used with increasing regularity in demographic analyses, McFadden’s conditional logit model is less well known and seldom used. Conditional logit models are appropriate when the choice among alternatives is modeled as a function of the characteristics of the alternatives, rather than (or in addition to) the characteristics of the individual making the choice. We argue that this feature of conditional logit makes it more appropriate for estimating behavioral models. In this article, the conditional logit model is presented and compared with the more familiar multinomial logit model. The difference between the two techniques is illustrated with an analysis of the choice of marital and welfare status by divorced or separated women.

2. Chen, Wanyi, et al. “The effects of emergency department crowding on triage and hospital admission decisions.” The American journal of emergency medicine 38.4 (2020): 774-779.

Conclusion: Increased ED occupancy was found to be associated with more patients being classifiedas higher acuity as well as higher hospital admission rates. As an example, for a commonly observed patient category, ourmodel predicts that as the ED occupancy increases from 25 to 75 patients, the probability of a patient beingtriaged as high acuity increases by about 50% and the probability of a patient being categorized as admit increasesby around 25%.

ED census refers tothe total number of patients in the ED, i.e., the number of patients in thewaiting room and those occupying a bed.

Impact of boarding patients The p-value result of the likelihood ratio test for boarder census was 0.78, which indicated that including boarder census in addition to the overall census does not statistically improve the model.

Explanation Nevertheless, the correlations we found support what ED providers, nurses,and managers have suspected all along: As the ED becomes morecrowded, there may be a tendency among providers and nurses tochange their behavior in decision making towards being more risk averse. It may be that as the executive and cognitive function is taxedby the load, the clinicians of care make the decision that appears to be the safest choice for the individual patient.

3. Ferrand, Yann B., et al. “Managing responsiveness in the emergency department: Comparing dynamic priority queue with fast track.” Journal of Operations Management 58 (2018): 15-26.





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